Health impact of air pollution and air temperature in Italy: evidence for policy actions

OBJECTIVES: to estimate the impact (number of deaths and attributable fraction) of air pollution (chronic exposure to PM2.5 and NO2) and high summer temperatures (acute exposure) on mortality in Italy. DESIGN: observational study. Time series analysis (for estimating acute effects of air temperature), and computation of deaths attributable to heat/pollution using standard health impact assessment functions. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: for the assessment of the impact due to chronic exposure to air pollutants, the study period considered was 2016-2019. For the assessment of the acute effects of air temperature and related impacts, the municipal daily series of deaths from all causes relating to the period 2003-2015 were used. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: mortality for all causes (effects and impacts of acute exposure to air temperature), cause-specific mortality (impact of chronic exposure to pollution). RESULTS: concerning chronic exposure to PM2.5, each year during 2016-2019, 72,083 deaths (11.7%) were estimated to be attributable to annual mean levels of PM2.5 above 5 µg/m3 (WHO-2021 Air Quality Guideline value). Of these, 39,628 were estimated in the regions of the Po Valley and 10,232 in the 6 Italian cities with >500,000 inhabitants. With reference to acute effects of air temperature, over 14,500 deaths (2.3%) were estimated to be attributable to daily temperature increases from the 75th to the 99th percentile of the municipality-specific distribution for the year 2015. Conclusions: high air pollution concentrations and summer temperatures are two environmental risk factors extremely relevant for public health. Although the prevention and mitigation interventions carried out in recent years have contributed to reducing the exposure of the population, there are still alarming numbers of deaths attributable to high levels of particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and air temperature in the Italian population.

[Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Italy: The EpiCovAir study]. / Esposizione a lungo termine a inquinamento dell'aria ambiente e incidenza di infezioni di SARS-CoV-2 in Italia: lo studio EpiCovAir.

BACKGROUND: after the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in 2020, several waves of pandemic cases have occurred in Italy. The role of air pollution has been hypothesized and investigated in several studies. However, to date, the role of chronic exposure to air pollutants in increasing incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections is still debated. OBJECTIVES: to investigate the association between long-term exposure to air pollutants and the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Italy. DESIGN: a satellite-based air pollution exposure model with 1-km2 spatial resolution for entire Italy was applied and 2016-2019 mean population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter < 10 micron (PM10), PM <2.5 micron (PM2.5), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was calculated to each municipality as estimates of chronic exposures. A principal component analysis (PCA) approach was applied to 50+ area-level covariates (geography and topography, population density, mobility, population health, socioeconomic status) to account for the major determinants of the spatial distribution of incidence rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Detailed information was further used on intra- and inter-municipal mobility during the pandemic period. Finally, a mixed longitudinal ecological design with the study units consisting of individual municipalities in Italy was applied. Generalized negative binomial models controlling for age, gender, province, month, PCA variables, and population density were estimated. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: individual records of diagnosed SARS-2-CoV-2 infections in Italy from February 2020 to June 2021 reported to the Italian Integrated Surveillance of COVID-19 were used. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: percentage increases in incidence rate (%IR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) per unit increase in exposure. RESULTS: 3,995,202 COVID-19 cases in 7,800 municipalities were analysed (total population: 59,589,357 inhabitants). It was found that long-term exposure to PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 was significantly associated with the incidence rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection. In particular, incidence of COVID-19 increased by 0.3% (95%CI 0.1%-0.4%), 0.3% (0.2%-0.4%), and 0.9% (0.8%-1.0%) per 1 µg/m3 increment in PM2.5, PM10 and NO2, respectively. Associations were higher among elderly subjects and during the second pandemic wave (September 2020-December 2020). Several sensitivity analyses confirmed the main results. The results for NO2 were especially robust to multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: evidence of an association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollutants and the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Italy was found.

Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Mortality among Four Million COVID-19 Cases in Italy: The EpiCovAir Study.

BACKGROUND: The role of chronic exposure to ambient air pollutants in increasing COVID-19 fatality is still unclear. OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to investigate the association between long-term exposure to air pollutants and mortality among 4 million COVID-19 cases in Italy. METHODS: We obtained individual records of all COVID-19 cases identified in Italy from February 2020 to June 2021. We assigned 2016-2019 mean concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter ≤10µm (PM10), PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5µm (PM2.5), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) to each municipality (n=7,800) as estimates of chronic exposures. We applied a principal component analysis (PCA) and a generalized propensity score (GPS) approach to an extensive list of area-level covariates to account for major determinants of the spatial distribution of COVID-19 case-fatality rates. Then, we applied generalized negative binomial models matched on GPS, age, sex, province, and month. As additional analyses, we fit separate models by pandemic periods, age, and sex; we quantified the numbers of COVID-19 deaths attributable to exceedances in annual air pollutant concentrations above predefined thresholds; and we explored associations between air pollution and alternative outcomes of COVID-19 severity, namely hospitalizations or accesses to intensive care units. RESULTS: We analyzed 3,995,202 COVID-19 cases, which generated 124,346 deaths. Overall, case-fatality rates increased by 0.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.5%, 0.9%], 0.3% (95% CI: 0.2%, 0.5%), and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.5%, 0.8%) per 1 µg/m3 increment in PM2.5, PM10, and NO2, respectively. Associations were higher among elderly subjects and during the first (February 2020-June 2020) and the third (December 2020-June 2021) pandemic waves. We estimated ∼8% COVID-19 deaths were attributable to pollutant levels above the World Health Organization 2021 air quality guidelines. DISCUSSION: We found suggestive evidence of an association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollutants with mortality among 4 million COVID-19 cases in Italy. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11882.

[SENTIERI Project: air pollution and health impact of population living in industrial areas in Italy]. / Valutazione dell'impatto dell'inquinamento atmosferico sulla salute della popolazione residente nelle aree industriali italiane incluse nel Progetto SENTIERI.

OBJECTIVES: to estimate the impact of PM2.5 and PM10 in the Italian industrial areas included in the SENTIERI project characterized by industrial plants with combustion processes deriving from point emissions. DESIGN: using satellite data, the Population Weighted Exposure (PWE) to PM2.5 and PM10 for 2011 and 2015 was estimated. The concentration-response functions available were used to estimate the number of premature deaths attributable to exposure to industrial emissions. The counterfactual levels recommended by the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines were used. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: for the selection of industrial plants, the European database on emissions of the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register was used. Residents in areas of 1 km x 1 km and 4 km x 4 km around the selected industrial plants were considered. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the number of premature deaths from non-accidental causes, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and lung cancer was estimated. RESULTS: residents were exposed to PM2.5 values of 17.3 µg/m3 (Northern Italy: 23.3) and to 24.3 µg/m3 (Northern Italy: 30.3) of PM10. PWE for both pollutants tends to increase as the size of the area under study is reduced and it is generally higher everywhere in 2011 than in 2015, with values that are always higher than the average (overall) in the Norther Italy. In 2011, 1,709 (IC95% 1,309-1,903) and 1,611 (IC95% 1,225-2,353) non accidental premature deaths were estimated attributable to PM2.5 and PM10, respectively, in residents close to the industrial plants (1 km x 1 km). Deaths attributable to exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 tend to follow a North-Central-South&Islands gradient for all observed causes and for both years of analysis. CONCLUSIONS: although exposure assessment of the population by using random-forest model does not allow to disentangle the contribution of the industrial component, the results of the study are suggestive of an impact on health from PM exposure in the industrial areas considered, with a greater impact in the vicinity of the plants, recommending the implementation of urgent impact reduction actions.

[SENTIERI - Epidemiological Study of Residents in National Priority Contaminated Sites. Sixth Report]. / SENTIERI - Studio epidemiologico nazionale dei territori e degli insediamenti esposti a rischio da inquinamento. Sesto Rapporto.

INTRODUCTION ADN OBJECTIVES: The Sixth Report presents the results of the "SENTIERI Project: implementation of the permanent epidemiological surveillance system of populations residing in Italian Sites of Remediation Interest", promoted and financed by the Italian Ministry of Health (Centre for Disease Control and Prevention - CCM Project 2018). The aim of this study is to update the mortality and hospitalization analyses concerning the 6,227,531 inhabitants (10.4% of the Italian population) residing in 46 contaminated sites (39 of national interest and 7 of regional interest). The sites include 316 municipalities distributed as follows: 15 in the North-East (20.3% of the investigated population); 104 in the North-West (12% of the investigated population), 32 in the Centre (12.6% of the investigated population), 165 in the South and Islands (55.5% of the investigated population). Analyses were carried out on the paediatric-adolescent (1,128,396 residents) and youth (665,284 residents) population, and a study on congenital anomalies (CA) was carried out at sites covered by congenital malformation registers. Accompanying the epidemiological assessments, site-specific socioeconomic conditions were examined and an overall estimate of excess risk for populations residing at contaminated sites was drawn up. By means of a systematic review of the scientific literature, the epidemiological evidence on causal links between sources of environmental exposure and health effects was updated to identify pathologies of a priori interest. METHODOLOGY: In the 46 sites included in the SENTIERI Project, mortality (time window: 2013-2017) and hospital admissions (time window: 2014-2018) of the general population of all ages, divided by gender, and of the paediatric-adolescent (0-1 year, 0-14 years, 0-19 years), youth (20-29 years), and overall (0-29 years) age groups, divided by gender, were analysed. In 21 sites, CA diagnosed within the first year of life were studied. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) and hospitalization ratios (SHR) were calculated with reference to the rates in the regions to which the sites belong. The reference population was calculated net of residents in the sites. CA were studied by calculating the prevalence per 10,000 births and the ratio, multiplied by 100, between the cases observed at the site and those expected on the basis of the prevalences observed in the reference area (region or sub-regional area of belonging, according to the geographical coverage of the registry). The socioeconomic condition studied in the 46 sites is based on the convergence of three deprivation indicators with respect to the reference region: deprivation index at municipal level, deprivation index at census section level, premature mortality indicator (age range 30-69 years) for chronic non-communicable diseases. For the estimation of excess risk for the entire study population, meta-analysis of the mortality and hospitalization risk estimates for each site was carried out and the number of excess deaths estimated for the sites as a whole. The epidemiological evidence was updated through a systematic literature review (January 2009-May 2020), following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. The search was carried out on the search engines MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science; the quality of the studies included in the review was assessed using the AMSTAR 2 checklist for systematic reviews and the NewCastle-Ottawa Scale for observational studies in the case of cohort and case-control studies and a modified version thereof for ecological and cross-sectional studies. The update was based on the selection of 14 systematic reviews, 15 primary studies, 6 monographs/reports from international scientific organisations on health effects due to the presence of environmental exposure sources. RESULTS: Mortality. The a priori causes of interest that occur most frequently in excess are, in descending order: malignant lung cancer, malignant mesothelioma of the pleura, malignant bladder cancer, respiratory diseases, non-Hodgkin lymphomas, malignant liver cancer, all malignant tumours, malignant colorectal cancer, malignant stomach cancer, total mesotheliomas, malignant breast cancer, and asbestosis. Hospitalization. The a priori causes of interest that occur most frequently in excess are represented in descending order by: respiratory diseases, malignant lung cancer, malignant tumours of the pleura, malignant bladder cancer, malignant breast cancer, malignant liver cancer, asthma, malignant colorectal cancer, all malignant tumours, malignant stomach cancer, non-Hodgkin's lymphomas, acute respiratory diseases, leukaemias. The differences observed between mortality and hospitalization can be attributed to the intrinsic characteristics of the diseases (higher or lower lethality, gender differences in incidence), lifestyles, and occupational phenomena. Age classes. Excesses of general mortality were observed in the first year of life at the Manfredonia, Basso Bacino Fiume Chienti, Litorale Domizio Flegreo and Agro Aversano sites; in the 0-1 year and 0-19 year age groups at Casale Monferrato; in the paediatric age group at Serravalle Scrivia and at the Trento Nord site; in the 0-19 year age group at Sassuolo Scandiano; in the young age group (0-29 years) at the two municipalities of Cerchiara and Cassano (Crotone-Cassano-Cerchiara site). With regard to hospitalization due to natural causes, risk excesses in both genders are found in the first year of life in 35% of the sites (Porto Torres industrial areas, Bari-Fibronit, Basso bacino fiume Chienti, Bolzano, Crotone-Cassano-Cerchiara, Cerro al Lambro, Bologna ETR large repair workshop, Gela, Manfredonia, Massa Carrara, Pioltello Rodano, Pitelli, Priolo, Sesto San Giovanni, Trento Nord, and Trieste). These same sites, with the addition of Casale Monferrato, Cengio e Saliceto, Serravalle Scrivia, and Sulcis-Iglesiente-Guspinese (total: 43% of sites), show excesses for all natural causes, in both genders, even in the paediatric-adolescent age group (0-19 years). Among young adults (20-29 years), the analyses show excesses of hospitalization for all natural causes in both genders in the Bolzano, Crotone-Cassano-Cerchiara, Gela, Manfredonia, Pitelli, Priolo, and Sulcis-Iglesiente-Guspinese sites. Among young women only, excesses for all natural causes are also found in Brescia Caffaro, Brindisi, Broni, Casale Monferrato, Crotone-Cassano-Cerchiara, Falconara Marittima, Fidenza, and Massa Carrara. Congenital anomalies. In the 21 sites investigated for CA, 10,126 cases of CA, validated by participating registers, were analysed out of 304,620 resident births. Genital CA is the subgroup for which the greatest number of excesses was observed (in 6 out of 21 sites). The available evidence does not allow a causal link to be established between the excesses observed for specific subgroups of ACs and exposure to industrial sources, but the results suggest further action. The interpretation of the results appears, in fact, particularly complex as the scientific literature on the association between exposure to industrial sources and AC is very limited. Socioeconomic status. The sites in which the indicators converge to show the presence of fragility are: Litorale Vesuviano area, Val Basento industrial areas, Basso Bacino fiume Chienti, Biancavilla, Crotone-Cassano-Cerchiara, Litorale Domizio Flegreo and Agro Aversano, Livorno, Massa Carrara, Trieste. Global impact. Over the period 2013-2017, an estimated 8,342 excess deaths (CI90% 1,875-14,809) or approximately 1,668 excess cases/year, 4,353 excess deaths among males (CI90% 334-8,372) and 3,989 among females (CI90% -1,122;9,101). The pooled excess risk of general mortality is 2% in both genders (pooled SMR 1.02; CI90% 1.00-1.04). The proportion of excess deaths to total observed deaths is almost constant over time, rising from 2.5% in 1995-2002 to 2.6% in 2013-2017. The number of deaths in absolute value is also very similar between the periods analysed. Deaths from all malignant tumours contribute the most by accounting for 56% of the observed excesses, the excess risk of mortality from malignant tumours across all sites, compared to the reference populations, is 4% in the male population (pooled SMR 1.04; CI90% 1.01-1.06) and 3% among the female population (pooled SMR 1.03; CI90% 1.01-1.05). Hospitalization (2014-2018) in the 46 sites as a whole was in excess of 3% for all causes, in both genders, for all major disease groups (males: SHR pooled 1.03; CI90% 1.01-1.04 - females: SHR pooled 1.03; CI90% 1.01-1.05). The results for the pooled estimates at the 46 sites on the general population, both with regard to mortality and hospitalization, are consistent in indicating excess risk in both genders for all the diseases considered and, in particular, for all malignancies. A total of 1,409 paediatric-adolescent deaths and 999 young adult deaths were observed, and the pooled analysis of mortality across the 46 sites showed no critical issues, with pooled estimates for all causes, perinatal morbid conditions and all malignancies falling short of expectations. The analysis of hospitalizations, on the other hand, showed an excess risk of 8% (males: SHR pooled 1.08; CI90% 1.03-1.13 - females: SHR pooled 1.08; CI90% 1.03-1.14) for all causes in the first year of life, and in paediatric-adolescent and juvenile age of 3-4% among males (age 0-19 years: SHR pooled 1.04; CI90% 1.02-1.06 - age 20-29 years: SHR pooled 1.03; CI90% 1.00-1.05) and 5% among females (in both age groups; SHR pooled 1.05; CI90% 1.02-1.08). The pooled analysis of mortality for the a priori identified diseases reported excesses for specific diseases in the group of sites with sources of exposure associated with them. Mortality from total mesotheliomas is three times higher at sites with asbestos present (males:pooled SMR 3.02; CI90% 2.18-3.87 - females: pooled SMR 3.61; CI90% 2.33-4.88) and that from pleural mesotheliomas more than two times higher at the group of sites with asbestos and port areas (males: pooled SMR 2.47; CI90% 1.94-3.00 - females: pooled SMR 2.43; CI90% 1.67-3.19). Lung cancer was in excess by 6% among males (pooled SMR 1.06; CI90% 1.03-1.10) and 7% among females (pooled SMR 1.07; CI90% 1.00-1.13). In addition, there are excess mortalities for colorectal cancer at sites with chemical plants, by 4 % among males (SMR pooled 1.04; CI90% 1.01-1.08) and 3 % among females (SMR pooled 1.03; CI90% 1.00-1.07) and for bladder cancer among the male population of sites with landfills (+6 %: SMR pooled 1.06; CI90% 1.02-1.11). Among the diseases of a priori interest, stomach and soft tissue cancers are at fault as a cause of death among all the sites considered. LITERATURE REVIEW: The update of the epidemiological evidence underlying the Sixth SENTIERI Report has highlighted in the general population a possible association, previously undiscovered, between certain diseases and residence near petrochemical and steel plants, landfills, coal mines and asbestos sources. CONCLUSIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Despite the fact that this is an ecological study, and the excesses of pathologies with multifactorial aetiology can never be mechanically attributed solely to the environmental pressure factors that exist or existed in the areas studied, the ability to identify the excesses found in the contaminated sites investigated by the SENTIERI Project confirms the validity of this method of assessing the site-specific health profile, based on the use of epidemiological evidence to identify pathologies of interest a priori. In interpreting the data and lending robustness to what has been observed, comparison with the results obtained in previous Reports is essential. The global estimates give an overall picture that shows excess mortality and hospitalization in these populations compared to the rest of the population, and show how, for specific pathologies, comparable effects are produced at sites with similar contamination characteristics. The themes developed in the in-depth chapters broaden the vision and understanding of the complex interactions between environment and health, describe the possibilities offered by new ways of communicating the results, and confirm the modernity of a Project that began way back in 2006, and that could be grafted onto the objectives of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan within the framework of the Operational Programme Health, Environment, Biodiversity and Climate.

Health impact of natural gas emission at Cava dei Selci residential zone (metropolitan city of Rome, Italy).

Natural gas hazard was assessed at Cava dei Selci, a residential neighbourhood of Marino (Rome) by a joint study of gas emissions and related health problems. Here a densely urbanized zone with 4000 residents surrounds a dangerous natural gas discharge where, along the years, dozens of animals were killed by the gas. Gas originates from Colli Albani volcano and consists mostly of CO2 with ~ 1 vol% of H2S. In recent years, several gas-related accidents occurred in the urbanized zone (gas blowouts and road collapses). Some houses were evacuated because of hazardous indoor air gas concentration. Gas hazard was assessed by soil CO2 flux and concentration surveys and indoor and outdoor air CO2 and H2S concentration measurements. Open fields and house gardens release a high quantity of CO2 (32.23 tonnes * day-1). Inside most houses, CO2 air concentration exceeds 0.1 vol%, the acceptable long-term exposure range. In several houses both CO2 and H2S exceed the IDLH level (Immediately Dangerous to Life and Health). An epidemiological cohort study was carried out on the residents of two Cava dei Selci zones with high (zone A) and medium (zone B) gas hazard exposure, using the rest of Marino as reference zone. We found excess mortality and emergency room visits (ERV) related to high exposure to CO2 and H2S; in particular, an increased risk of mortality and ERV for diseases of central nervous system (HR 1.57, 95% CI 0.76-3.25 and HR 5.82, 95% CI 1.27-26.56, respectively) was found among men living in zone A.

[BIGEPI project: environmental and health data]. / Progetto BIGEPI: dati ambientali e dati sanitari.

OBJECTIVES: the BIGEPI project, co-funded by INAIL, has used big data to identify the health risks associated with short and long-term exposure to air pollution, extreme temperatures and occupational exposures. DESIGN: the project consists of 5 specific work packages (WP) aimed at assessing: 1. the acute effects of environmental exposures over the national territory; 2. the acute effects of environmental exposures in contaminated areas, such as Sites of National Interest (SIN) and industrial sites; 3. the chronic effects of environmental exposures in 6 Italian longitudinal metropolitan studies; 4. the acute and chronic effects of environmental exposures in 7 epidemiological surveys on population samples; 5. the chronic effects of occupational exposures in the longitudinal metropolitan studies of Rome and Turin. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: BIGEPI analyzed environmental and health data at different levels of detail: the whole Italian population (WP1); populations living in areas contaminated by pollutants of industrial origin (WP2); the entire longitudinal cohorts of the metropolitan areas of Bologna, Brindisi, Rome, Syracuse, Taranto and Turin (WP3 and WP5); population samples participating in the epidemiological surveys of Ancona, Palermo, Pavia, Pisa, Sassari, Turin and Verona (WP4). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: environmental exposure: PM10, PM2,5, NO2 and O3 concentrations and air temperature at 1 Km2 resolution at national level. Occupational exposures: employment history of subjects working in at least one of 25 sectors with similar occupational exposures to chemicals/carcinogens; self-reported exposure to dust/fumes/gas in the workplace. Health data: cause-specific mortality/hospitalisation; symptoms/diagnosis of respiratory/allergic diseases; respiratory function and bronchial inflammation. RESULTS: BIGEPI analyzed data at the level of the entire Italian population, data on 2.8 million adults (>=30 yrs) in longitudinal metropolitan studies and on about 14,500 individuals (>=18 yrs) in epidemiological surveys on population samples. The population investigated in the longitudinal metropolitan studies had an average age of approximately 55 years and that of the epidemiological surveys was about 48 years; in both cases, 53% of the population was female. As regards environmental exposure, in the period 2013-2015, at national level average values for PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and summer O3 were: 21.1±13.6, 15.1±10.9, 14.7±9.1 and 80.3±17.3 µg/m3, for the temperature the average value was 13.9±7.2 °C. Data were analyzed for a total of 1,769,660 deaths from non-accidental causes as well as 74,392 incident cases of acute coronary event and 45,513 of stroke. Epidemiological investigations showed a high prevalence of symptoms/diagnoses of rhinitis (range: 14.2-40.5%), COPD (range: 4.7-19.3%) and asthma (range: 3.2-13.2%). The availability of these large datasets has made it possible to implement advanced statistical models for estimating the health effects of short- and long-term exposures to pollutants. The details are reported in the BIGEPI papers already published in other international journals and in those published in this volume of E&P. CONCLUSIONS: BIGEPI has confirmed the great potential of using big data in studies of the health effects of environmental and occupational factors, stimulating new directions of scientific research and confirming the need for preventive action on air quality and climate change for the health of the general population and the workers.

[Short-term effects of PM10 on cause-specific mortality and the role of long-term environmental pressures in the industrial areas of Brindisi and Civitavecchia]. / Effetti a breve termine del PM10 sulla mortalità causa-specifica e ruolo delle pressioni ambientali di lungo periodo nelle aree industriali di Brindisi e Civitavecchia.

OBJECTIVES: the health status of people living near industrial plants is often exposed to several environmental risk factors, including air pollution. The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between daily PM10 levels and cause-specific mortality in a selection of municipalities near two industrial plants from 2006 to 2015. DESIGN: a time-series design with Poisson regression adjusted for a predefined set of confounders was used to quantify the association between exposure, calculated as daily PM10 levels extrapolated from machine-learning models using satellite data, and cause-specific mortality. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: twenty municipalities near the thermal power plants in Civitavecchia and Brindisi were selected. The municipalities were then divided into three scenarios of chronic exposure derived from SPRAY simulation models of pollutant deposition. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: daily cause-specific non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths defined according to the International Classification of Diseases code at the municipality level. RESULTS: a total of 41,942 deaths were observed in the entire area (10,503 in the Civitavecchia area and 31,439 in the Brindisi area), of which approximately 41% were due to cardiovascular causes and 8% due to respiratory causes. The association showed an increase in shortterm effects in municipalities with higher chronic levels of pollution exposure. For example, risk estimates reported as percentage increases per 10-unit increase in PM10 were 6.7% (95% CI 0.9, 12.7%) in scenario 3 (highest exposure) compared to 4.2% (-1.2, 9.9%) and 2.7% (-4.2, 10.2%) in scenarios 2 and 1, respectively, in the area near the Civitavecchia plant. Similar effects were observed for the Brindisi area. CONCLUSIONS: despite the well-documented relationship between short-term pollution and mortality, it appears that greater chronic exposure to industrial pollutants leads to increased short-term effects of PM10. The limited number of events suggests that this study could serve as a starting point for a larger investigation.

Biomonitoring of Exposure to Urban Pollutants and Oxidative Stress during the COVID-19 Lockdown in Rome Residents.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of traffic on human health comparing biomonitoring data measured during the COVID-19 lockdown, when restrictions led to a 40% reduction in airborne benzene in Rome and a 36% reduction in road traffic, to the same parameters measured in 2021. METHODS: Biomonitoring was performed on 49 volunteers, determining the urinary metabolites of the most abundant traffic pollutants, such as benzene and PAHs, and oxidative stress biomarkers by HPLC/MS-MS, 28 elements by ICP/MS and metabolic phenotypes by NMR. RESULTS: Means of s-phenylmercaputric acid (SPMA), metabolites of naphthalene and nitropyrene in 2020 are 20% lower than in 2021, while 1-OH-pyrene was 30% lower. A reduction of 40% for 8-oxo-7,8-dihydroguanosine (8-oxoGuo) and 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2-deoxyguanosine (8-oxodGuo) and 60% for 8-oxo-7,8-dihydroguanine (8-oxoGua) were found in 2020 compared to 2021. The concentrations of B, Co, Cu and Sb in 2021 are significantly higher than in the 2020. NMR untargeted metabolomic analysis identified 35 urinary metabolites. Results show in 2021 a decrease in succinic acid, a product of the Krebs cycle promoting inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: Urban pollution due to traffic is partly responsible for oxidative stress of nucleic acids, but other factors also have a role, enhancing the importance of communication about a healthy lifestyle in the prevention of cancer diseases.

What is required to combine human biomonitoring and health surveys?

Obtaining holistic information about health and health determinants at the population level should also include data on environmental risk factors of health. So far, only a few countries have combined, at the national level, health and human biomonitoring (HBM) surveys to collect extensive information on health, lifestyles, biological health determinants and environmental exposures. This paper will provide guidelines on how to combine health and HBM surveys and what is the added value of doing so. Health and HBM surveys utilize similar infrastructure and data collection methods including questionnaires, collection and analysis of biological samples, and objective health measurements. There are many overlapping or comparable steps in these two survey types. At the European level, detailed protocols for conducting a health examination survey or HBM study exists separately but there is no protocol for a combined survey available by now. Our recommendations for combined health and HBM surveys focus on a cross-sectional survey on general population aged 6-79 years. To avoid unnecessary participant burden, for the selection of included measurements basic principle would be to ensure that results of the measurements have a public health relevance and clear interpretation. Combining health and HBM surveys into one survey would produce an extensive database for research to support policy decisions in many fields such as public health and chemical regulations. Combined surveys are cost-effective as only one infrastructure is needed to collect information and recruit participants.

Health impact assessment should be based on correct methods.

The methodology of health impact assessment (HIA), originally proposed by WHO, is widely used to predict the potential health effects in a community living in a place in which a new project (e.g., an industrial plant) will be implemented. One of the key quantities to calculate the impact (i.e., the number of attributable cases) is the baseline (i.e., before the project implementation) rate of selected diseases in the community. In a recent paper on this journal, this methodology has been challenged. Specifically, the use of baseline rate has been questioned, proposing to use only the fraction of the baseline rate due to the exposures related to the project, and not the rate due to all risk factors for the disease. In this commentary, we argue that the proposal is logically and epidemiologically unsound, and devoid of scientific motivation. The conclusion that the traditional approach overestimates the health impact should be rejected as based on flawed assumptions. On the contrary, the proposal may produce a (seriously biased) underestimation of attributable cases.

A Methodological Approach to Use Contextual Factors for Epidemiological Studies on Chronic Exposure to Air Pollution and COVID-19 in Italy.

The large availability of both air pollution and COVID-19 data, and the simplicity to make geographical correlations between them, led to a proliferation of ecological studies relating the levels of pollution in administrative areas to COVID-19 incidence, mortality or lethality rates. However, the major drawback of these studies is the ecological fallacy that can lead to spurious associations. In this frame, an increasing concern has been addressed to clarify the possible role of contextual variables such as municipalities' characteristics (including urban, rural, semi-rural settings), those of the resident communities, the network of social relations, the mobility of people, and the responsiveness of the National Health Service (NHS), to better clarify the dynamics of the phenomenon. The objective of this paper is to identify and collect the municipalities' and community contextual factors and to synthesize their information content to produce suitable indicators in national environmental epidemiological studies, with specific emphasis on assessing the possible role of air pollution on the incidence and severity of the COVID-19 disease. A first step was to synthesize the content of spatial information, available at the municipal level, in a smaller set of "summary indexes" that can be more easily viewed and analyzed. For the 7903 Italian municipalities (1 January 2020-ISTAT), 44 variables were identified, collected, and grouped into five information dimensions a priori defined: (i) geographic characteristics of the municipality, (ii) demographic and anthropogenic characteristics, (iii) mobility, (iv) socio-economic-health area, and (v) healthcare offer (source: ISTAT, EUROSTAT or Ministry of Health, and further ad hoc elaborations (e.g., OpenStreetMaps)). Principal component analysis (PCA) was carried out for the five identified dimensions, with the aim of reducing the large number of initial variables into a smaller number of components, limiting as much as possible the loss of information content (variability). We also included in the analysis PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 population weighted exposure (PWE) values obtained using a four-stage approach based on the machine learning method, "random forest", which uses space-time predictors, satellite data, and air quality monitoring data estimated at the national level. Overall, the PCA made it possible to extract twelve components: three for the territorial characteristics dimension of the municipality (variance explained 72%), two for the demographic and anthropogenic characteristics dimension (variance explained 62%), three for the mobility dimension (variance explained 83%), two for the socio-economic-health sector (variance explained 58%) and two for the health offer dimension (variance explained 72%). All the components of the different dimensions are only marginally correlated with each other, demonstrating their potential ability to grasp different aspects of the spatial distribution of the COVID-19 pathology. This work provides a national repository of contextual variables at the municipality level collapsed into twelve informative factors suitable to be used in studies on the association between chronic exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 pathology, as well as for investigations on the role of air pollution on the health of the Italian population.

A multi-step machine learning approach to assess the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on NO2 attributable deaths in Milan and Rome, Italy.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is one of the main concerns for the health of European citizens, and cities are currently striving to accomplish EU air pollution regulation. The 2020 COVID-19 lockdown measures can be seen as an unintended but effective experiment to assess the impact of traffic restriction policies on air pollution. Our objective was to estimate the impact of the lockdown measures on NO2 concentrations and health in the two largest Italian cities. METHODS: NO2 concentration datasets were built using data deriving from a 1-month citizen science monitoring campaign that took place in Milan and Rome just before the Italian lockdown period. Annual mean NO2 concentrations were estimated for a lockdown scenario (Scenario 1) and a scenario without lockdown (Scenario 2), by applying city-specific annual adjustment factors to the 1-month data. The latter were estimated deriving data from Air Quality Network stations and by applying a machine learning approach. NO2 spatial distribution was estimated at a neighbourhood scale by applying Land Use Random Forest models for the two scenarios. Finally, the impact of lockdown on health was estimated by subtracting attributable deaths for Scenario 1 and those for Scenario 2, both estimated by applying literature-based dose-response function on the counterfactual concentrations of 10 µg/m3. RESULTS: The Land Use Random Forest models were able to capture 41-42% of the total NO2 variability. Passing from Scenario 2 (annual NO2 without lockdown) to Scenario 1 (annual NO2 with lockdown), the population-weighted exposure to NO2 for Milan and Rome decreased by 15.1% and 15.3% on an annual basis. Considering the 10 µg/m3 counterfactual, prevented deaths were respectively 213 and 604. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that the lockdown had a beneficial impact on air quality and human health. However, compliance with the current EU legal limit is not enough to avoid a high number of NO2 attributable deaths. This contribution reaffirms the potentiality of the citizen science approach and calls for more ambitious traffic calming policies and a re-evaluation of the legal annual limit value for NO2 for the protection of human health.